Zohreh Shirani Fakhr; Rahaman Khoshakhlagh
Abstract
In this study, we estimate the demand for energy in the industrial subsectors of Iran in terms of double-digit ISIC classification using structural time series model (STSM) over the period of 13601981-20091388. As a case study, we alsoAlso, as a case study we estimated the demand for energy in subsection ...
Read More
In this study, we estimate the demand for energy in the industrial subsectors of Iran in terms of double-digit ISIC classification using structural time series model (STSM) over the period of 13601981-20091388. As a case study, we alsoAlso, as a case study we estimated the demand for energy in subsection subsectors of textile, apparel and leather products. Furthermore, we try to determine considered the role of different climates in energy demand of the industrial subsectors. Because Since the Targeting of Subsidies Plan was approved by the Iranian parliament at the end of 13892010, so we evaluated the role of this plan on energy demand of industrial subsectors too. By estimating the demand functions of electricity, natural gas, gas oil and mazut in subsection textile, apparel and leather products, it is found thatThe estimation results of demand for electricity, natural gas, gas oil and mazut fuel oil in three subsectors show that the estimated short-run price elasticities of these energy carriers are inelastic. The estimated long-run price elasticity of electricity is inelastic and long-run price elasticity of natural gas, gas oil and fuel oil mazut are more than unit. The estimated short-run output elasticities of these energy carries are inelastic and long- run output elasticities of electricity, gas oil and fuel oil mazut are inelastic and long- run output elasticitiy of natural gas are elastic. The result shows that the best climate for manufacture in textile sector is mild and humid climate. The results suggest that the nature ofAlso the trend of natural gas and fuel oil mazut demand are not linear and deterministic but stochastic in form andbut for electricity demand isn linear and deterministic. In aAdditionally, the result of evaluating effect of the Targeting of Subsidies Plan shows that the estimated demand for natural gas and fuel oil mazut demand functions can explain the impact of this policy.
Seyyed Komeil Tayyebi; Rahaman Khoshakhlagh; Maryam Farahani
Volume 3, Issue 9 , January 2014, , Pages 175-197
Abstract
Uncertainty is different from risk. When a variable is having uncertainty, as oil prices where unique characteristics are expected, risk analysis can not explain the behavior of that variable. Stochastic differential equations are able to model the behavior of such variables. Mean reverting stochastic ...
Read More
Uncertainty is different from risk. When a variable is having uncertainty, as oil prices where unique characteristics are expected, risk analysis can not explain the behavior of that variable. Stochastic differential equations are able to model the behavior of such variables. Mean reverting stochastic process is a kind of stochastic differential equation which is assumed to have the variable fluctuating in the proximity of its long run average. In this paper, we measure a proxy of uncertainty for Iran's heavy oil prices by mean reverting stochastic process in the period of 1985-2009. The results indicate that the most uncertainties were in 2005, 2006 and 2007 and the least were in 1985, 1986 and 1998.
Rahman Khoshakhlagh; Marzieh Sotodehnia Corani
Volume 1, Issue 4 , October 2012, , Pages 43-65
Abstract
The purpose of this research work is the evaluation of the significant factors explaining concentration of air pollution in the city of Yazd and then explaining how the expected damage to the pollution can be evaluated. After estimating the costs due to air pollution created environmental net domestic ...
Read More
The purpose of this research work is the evaluation of the significant factors explaining concentration of air pollution in the city of Yazd and then explaining how the expected damage to the pollution can be evaluated. After estimating the costs due to air pollution created environmental net domestic (EDP) production is damaged. EDP obtained is 4887930630 and this amout is based upon our research that shows each resident is willing to pay 4937 Rials where is what is being cost of the present is 1627.
Rouhollah Shahnazi; Rahman Khoshakhlagh; Mohsen Renani
Volume 1, Issue 3 , July 2012, , Pages 35-65
Abstract
Allocation of the oil revenues is one of the most important economic problems in the oil exporting countries budget, so the main aim of this paper is to determine the optimal allocation of oil revenues. This allocation is studied in three sub-problems: the main natural features of oil revenues, effects ...
Read More
Allocation of the oil revenues is one of the most important economic problems in the oil exporting countries budget, so the main aim of this paper is to determine the optimal allocation of oil revenues. This allocation is studied in three sub-problems: the main natural features of oil revenues, effects of ignoring this particular features in policies and the best policy of allocation. In theoretical part, we develop a model based on OLG model of Blanchard (1985) and Uzawa-Lucas endogenous growth model, composition with oil revenues. We analysis the optimal path of consumption, human and physical capital formation and there for the economic growth in four cases with no subsidies, capital subsidies and direct and indirect consumption subsidies (as is the theoretical contribution of this study). In applied part, first we compute the required parameters by using the Iranian economy dataset. Then we calibrate the model constructed in theoretical sector. Finally we solve the model by using Wolfarm Mathematica 6 software. The results indicate the optimal path of consumtion, human and physical capital formation and economic growth is obtained with capital subsidies.
